Elsa V. Paul — Thought Leadership

February 16, 2026  ·  Enterprise AI Strategy

The Invisibility Gap:
Why AI Laggards Won't
Be Able to Catch Up

Small, compounding advantages in data, people, and ways of working are already creating structural barriers that mid-size and larger companies cannot close if they wait.

2–6×
Higher total shareholder returns for AI leaders
27%
Productivity growth in industries most exposed to AI
Returns earned by frontier firms vs. late adopters
E
Elsa V. Paul, CGAIE, AIC
Senior Marketing Manager, Kito Crosby · AI Workflows & MarTech

What Is the Invisibility Gap?

The invisibility gap is the quiet divide that forms between companies that treat AI as a core part of how they run and those that delay or dabble. It's "invisible" because it doesn't show up clearly in the numbers right away — but it grows underneath the surface for years.

Recent research from McKinsey, BCG, IBM, and PwC shows just how far this split is going. If your company isn't already designing, testing, and scaling AI into real work, the time to move is now — before a 2027–2028 turning point where catching up becomes economically unrealistic.

AI Leaders

Compounding Advantage

Models improve every month as more data flows through
Employees build AI fluency into daily work habits
Processes are redesigned with AI in the loop from the start
Decisions get faster, data gets cleaner, costs drop
AI Laggards

Structural Stagnation

Stuck in experiment mode or not engaged at all
Data stays messy, siloed, and ungoverned
Employees don't build AI skills; workflows don't change
Would need to rebuild data, culture, and operating models simultaneously

Leaders Compound. Laggards Fall Behind.

AI is already in most organizations. Around two-thirds or more use AI in at least one part of the business — but only a small group has reached true maturity, where AI is deeply built into processes and has a clear impact on profit. These leaders aren't just "trying AI tools." They're changing how decisions get made, how people spend their time, and how governance works so AI can scale.

PwC · 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer
+20pp
Productivity growth in AI-exposed industries jumped from 7% to 27% after GenAI took off. Industries least exposed saw growth dip from 10% to 9%.
McKinsey · Digital Maturity Index
60%
The gap in digital and AI maturity between leaders and laggards has widened by about 60% in recent years, with leaders now delivering 2–6× higher TSR.
Multiple Datasets · ROI Analysis
Leading "frontier" firms earn close to 3× returns on AI, while late adopters often see weak or negative returns from scattered pilots and tools that never scale.

Looking toward 2030, enterprise scenarios from firms like IBM and BCG show two clear paths. AI-first organizations grow faster and more profitably by combining human and AI systems across their workflows, while shallow adopters see margins shrink as markets consolidate around those that scaled AI early.

The Compounding Gap Over Time

Drag the slider to see how the advantage gap widens between AI leaders and laggards as years pass.

Year 1 2024 Year 5
AI Leader Performance Index
100
Baseline — AI embedded in 2–3 core workflows, data foundation established.
AI Laggard Performance Index
100
Baseline — Scattered pilots, no scaled deployment, data ungoverned.

The 18–36 Month Path to AI Maturity

Most mid-size and large companies can't become AI-mature in a single year. Typical timelines from strategy to scaled results run 18–36 months, even with strong sponsorship and funding. If the 2027–2028 "no return" window is real, mid-size firms need to be moving no later than Q2–Q4 2025 just to complete one full 18–24 month cycle in time.

Waiting for one more budget cycle or a few more case studies pushes many companies into "pilot purgatory" — where projects stay stuck in tests and never reach production or scale.

1
Phase 1
3–6 months

Discover & Govern

Build a clear list of high-value AI use cases, sort out governance and risk, and run data audits so you know what you actually have and can use.

2
Phase 2
6–12 months

Build & Pilot

Stand up or upgrade the AI/data infrastructure, run 2–3 serious pilots on real business problems, and measure impact and feasibility.

3
Phase 3
12–24 months

Scale & Embed

Redesign operating models, invest in upskilling, and scale what works with clear KPIs and guardrails so AI becomes part of daily work — not a one-off project.

"The math is simple: 24-month cycles plus a 2027 threshold means the decision to commit is no longer a future topic. It's now."
— Elsa V. Paul, CGAIE, AIC

The Real Readiness Barriers

A neat roadmap isn't enough. The main blockers for most companies are not technical — they sit in four areas that keep showing up in research.

Data Readiness

About half of stalled AI efforts tie back to poor data: scattered systems, low quality, missing ownership, or no clear access. For a mid-size firm, fixing this usually takes 6–12 months of work on data governance, integration, and modern data platforms.

Psychological Safety

Many employees worry AI will threaten their jobs or don't trust systems they can't see inside. Researchers highlight the need for a culture where it's safe to test AI — where small failures are treated as learning, and where the story is clear: AI is here to augment people, not replace everyone.

Time to Learn & Experiment

If teams are already overloaded, they won't learn AI skills or redesign their workflows if AI is just "extra work" on top of their day job. Companies that actually move forward carve out 10–20% of time for AI learning and experimentation.

Organizational Alignment

Without strong leadership and shared priorities, companies often get stuck in a loop: leaders won't fund scale without hard proof, but teams can't generate proof without some commitment to scale. Successful transformations almost always have a CEO-led steering group.


A 90-Day Playbook for Progress

For mid-size B2B leaders, the goal in the next 90 days isn't to "finish" AI transformation — it's to show clear, measurable progress on the right foundations. This sequence lines up with what BCG and McKinsey describe in their AI programs.

Priority Week 1–4 Actions Week 5–12 Milestones Leading Indicators
Data Audit three priority use cases and stand up a cross-functional data squad to support them. Stand up a data catalog for these areas and bring at least one critical dataset to AI-ready status. Percentage of priority use cases with clean, reliable data pipelines.
Culture Issue a CEO-level narrative on AI as augmentation, followed by open town halls, and launch "safe-to-fail" pilots with clear guardrails. Achieve a 70%+ score on "it is safe to experiment with AI" in pulse surveys. Employee AI NPS and qualitative feedback on AI experiments.
Time Mandate at least 10% of time for AI learning and experimentation, and integrate AI skill-building into OKRs. Complete a first cohort AI fluency or certification program tied to real work use cases. Average weekly AI practice hours per employee in target roles.
Alignment Form a CEO-sponsored steering committee and select three enterprise-level AI plays to prioritize. Approve a funded six-month roadmap with clear accountabilities and decision rights. Cadence and quality of steering committee sessions and on-time sign-offs.

These moves give you early proof that you aren't just talking about AI, but actually building the conditions to cross the 2027 threshold with real progress instead of last-minute panic.

Move Now or Accept Decline

By 2027–2028, AI-first companies will likely have locked in advantages in productivity, margins, and market share that are extremely hard to copy once their data, people, and operating models are fully tuned around AI. For mid-size B2B companies, that leaves roughly an 18-month window.

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The numbers are already in motion. The clock isn't slowing down.